Leavenworth Buyers Gain Power as Inventory Hits 3-Year High

The biggest headline this month isn't the fall foliage, its the major shift in Leavenworth Washington market leverage.  Whether you're considering selling your mountain retreat, or finally buying that get away cabin, you need to understand one key thing: the power dynamics have fundamentally changed.

Watch my full analysis below, or keep scrolling for a detailed breakdown of the data proving buyers have the best leverage since before 2020.

Leavenworth Market Snapshot: Why Buyers Have the Upper Hand

Today I'm going to breakdown four numbers that show buyers have the best selection and negotiating power we've seen in over three years, and what sellers must do to command a closing.

1.) Active Inventory + Months of Supply

While inventory dipped slightly in September, we are still sitting at the highest levels in over three years by over 10%.  This is a huge factor for selection when your looking for properties. 14.2 months of supply is a clear Buyers Market indicator, a stark contrast to the market 18-24 months ago.  This metric is significantly higher than the last two years, peaking at over 14 months this year.

Seller Takeaway: Your competition remains high.  Buyers are not desperate, and they can afford to be choosy.  If your property isn't priced right or presented flawlessly, it will simply sit on the sidelines.

Buyer Takeaway: This is your window of opportunity. You have the widest selection in years and zero pressure to settle. This is the moment to be strategic and target that unique recreational property you've always wanted.

2.) Average Sales Price

The average sales price is showing short term volatility (which isn't abnormal for the Leavenworth Market), settling at $562K in September.  More significantly, the average over the last 12 month is down 6.1% from the 12 months prior.  This is a clear cooling off trend.

Seller Takeaway: A pricing strategy based on last summer's peak is a recipe for failure.  You must be forward looking and realistic with your initial price to avoid costly price reduc3.tions down the line.  A realistic price is what secures a sale quickly.

Buyer Takeaway: Price stability is returning, but the monthly decline shows downward pressure.  For second home buyers, this means y our dollar is buying more property or more acreage then it did just three months ago and you now may be able to aim higher within your same budget

3.) Average Days on Market

Good news: the median time to sell decreased to 59 days in September. However, the 12-month average of 87 days is up nearly 28% from the 12 months prior.

Seller Takeaway: If your homes sells quickly (under 60 days), you nailed the pricing and presentation.  If you are sitting above the 87 day average, you are reinforcing the buyer's belief that your home has a flaw, either price, condition, or location.

Buyer Takeaway: The market speed is manageable right now.  This gives you plenty of time for thorough due diligence, strong inspections, and negotiating repairs.  The pressure to waive contingencies to compete is mostly gone, which significantly lowers the risk of your purchase.

4.) Percentage of List Price Received 

This is the most dramatic shift we've seen: September dropped to 90.2% of list price received (Great work September buyers, and buyer agents). That means on a $700,000 home, the average seller conceded over $65,000.  Now there are limited data when you look at one month (18 Home sales for September), so a couple big discounts can skew the overall number.  For the last three years, the average was closer to 95% with home buyers getting a 5% discount on the overall price.

Seller Takeaway: This is not a market of full price offers or bidding wars.  Expect and budget for negotiation.  You must be motivated and flexible.  Pre-empt this by pricing sharply from the start to avoid a prolonged and draining negotiation process.

Buyer Takeaway: This statistic is your biggest negotiation tool.  It's proof that seller are willing to negotiate aggressively right now.  This gives you leverage to negotiate price, closing costs, and repairs.  You are in the drivers seat.

Final Thoughts and Takeaways

In short, the Leavenworth market has officially transitioned.  Sellers need to be realistic and meticulous.  Buyers have unprecedented opportunity in terms of selection and leverage.

Seller Strategy: To succeed, you must focus on two things: Pricing for the current reality, and perfectly staging the unique outdoor lifestyle (privacy, views, recreation access) that our type of buyers demand. If you want a data-driven valuation that reflects the new reality, let's talk.

Buyer Strategy: Don't wait for winter, act on this current inventory and leverage.  Let's build a strategy to target those high-quality properties that have been on the market for 60+ days and secure a significant negotiation. If your ready to take advantage of this inventory and leverage, let's schedule a call to lock in your mountain getaway before the spring demand returns.